A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
